In a significant leap forward for domestic robotics, two Chinese humanoid robot companies made waves recently by announcing their plans to commence mass production within just three days of each otherZhiYuan Robotics declared that they are set to begin the commercial mass production of general-purpose robots, revealing their goal to produce nearly one thousand units by the end of the yearFollowing suit, Sichuan Tianlian Robotics also announced the launch of the second batch of their humanoid robot production.

Prior to these announcements, established players in the industry, such as Fourier and Yushu Technology, in addition to emerging startups like Zhongke Huiling from Beijing and Magic Atom, had shared updates on their own mass production plansIt's noteworthy that Jensen Huang, the founder of NVIDIA, commented in late November that only three categories of robots—automobiles, drones, and humanoid robots—would be capable of achieving large-scale production going forward.

The prospect of mass production appears to be an effective way for humanoid robotics manufacturers to showcase their capabilities

However, amid the still-maturing development of general models for humanoid robots, mass production poses greater financial pressures and risks associated with inconsistent market demandCompanies are now faced with the challenge of how to manage these risks while ensuring that mass production does not lead to premature advancement, a major consideration in this current wave of production enthusiasm.

Currently, small batch production has become the standard"We've just delivered a humanoid robot to Shanghai, and the second batch of full-scale production is already underway," disclosed Hu Tianlian, the chairman of Sichuan Tianlian RoboticsHu mentioned that the first batch of their T1Pro humanoid robots had nearly been delivered, with about 15 units planned for the second production runAnother executive from a Beijing humanoid robot company pointed out that, due to the existing supply chain landscape in the country, the typical production scale for humanoid robot manufacturers remains under 100 units per batch

While ZhiYuan Robotics announced its ambitious target of nearing 1,000 units by year’s end, their latest disclosed figures as of December 15 indicate a cumulative total of 962 robots produced, suggesting that fewer than 38 units would be produced in the final two weeks of the yearAt the time of writing, the relevant contacts at ZhiYuan Robotics had not returned comments regarding actual delivery volumes or their production scheduling.

Those involved in already announced plans for future mass production, such as Magic Atom and Zhongke Huiling, echoed the sentiment that most humanoid robot companies in China are still engaged in small-batch production phasesA representative from Magic Atom noted that, from both market and supply chain perspectives, a "small steps approach" is more aligned with the current pace of humanoid robot production.

Achieving large-scale production necessitates a powerful combination of capital, research and development capabilities, manufacturing prowess, and adept supply chain management, explained He Jiyong, the director at Zhangru Research Institute

Though there remains a distance to reach substantial production capabilities, the ability to manufacture in batches signifies the firm’s coordination competencies within its supply chain.

Hu Tianlian emphasized that a strong research and development team is essential to produce humanoid robots efficiently"Before mass production, manufacturers must continually train prototypes to ensure alignment between algorithms and the physical robots," he noted, stating that a five-month training and adjustment period took place prior to the T1Pro's mass production in August of this year.

Hu elaborated further, saying that following the creation of prototypes in March, adjustments were made to joint load-bearing and stability, with training on walking capabilities beginning in JuneThroughout this process, data collection and micro-adjustments of components were essential, alongside validating the walking algorithms

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"Prior to delivery, we confirmed that the T1Pro could maintain full-body dexterity of 71 degrees while effectively carrying 145 kilograms during a deep squat," Hu recalled.

The small scale of batch production also implies a rise in the production cost per humanoid robotIn October, Elon Musk revealed at a Tesla conference that the estimated cost for scaling the production of the Optimus humanoid robot is expected to be between $20,000 and $30,000 per unitHowever, Musk indicated on social platform X in late November that he aims to bring the cost below $20,000 for each robot.

Achieving a sub-$20,000 target will be extremely challenging, Musk acknowledged, asserting that reaching this cost goal would require an annual production volume exceeding one million units"Domestic humanoid robot makers have the potential for better cost control," affirmed a senior executive from a key component firm in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, who noted that, as the proportion of self-developed components increases, some companies have already managed to lower the production cost for humanoid robots to under 200,000 yuan, despite operating within small batch constraints underpinned by local supply chain advantages.

While commercial applications of humanoid robots remain a clear future trajectory, the actual mass production process is still fraught with complexities

As early as November 2023, Shanghai Fourier Intelligent Technology Coindicated that their general-purpose humanoid robot GR-1 had already achieved mass production and would soon be deployed in rehabilitation and caregiving contextsAccording to a representative, by October, more than 100 units of the GR-1 had been produced and delivered.

Similarly, Zhongke Huiling has announced plans for small-scale production of their biped humanoid robot Lingbao CASBOT 01 following 1-2 iterative updatesAfter recently revealing their first humanoid robot, Magic Atom also shared its intentions to undertake small-scale production in early 2025, targeting applications within industrial and commercial service spaces.

Market validation remains critical for the deployment of humanoid robots; hence, manufacturers are prioritizing semi-structured environments for preliminary mass production, such as in the automotive and 3C electronics sectors

As suggested by Yuan Shuai, the deputy secretary-general of the Zhongguancun Internet of Things Industry Alliance, these industries feature flexible supply chains offering ample data feedback for robot training and improvement.

Hu Tianlian elaborated that the initial market buyers for the T1Pro primarily comprised universities, AI-focused firms, and 3C enterprises"Agreements have been reached with some buyers to facilitate real-world usage scenarios that allow us to gather new data to enhance and tweak algorithms," he divulged, adding that the lightweight and compact design, alongside impressive load-bearing capability, has also directed attention toward military applications"We have discernible market needs, which will lead to launching different product lines at varied price points in batches," he affirmed.

Post-mass production, the vision of fully automated factories spearheaded by robots no longer exists solely in the realm of imagination

Reports indicate that ZhiYuan Robotics is in the process of constructing Shanghai’s first humanoid robot mass production facility in Lingang Fengxian, integrating embodied data collection operations to further enhance robot performanceLikewise, Musk envisions that by 2025, over 1,000 Optimus humanoid robots will be at work within Tesla’s factories, wagering that humanoid robots are poised to become industrial mainstays, with their numbers potentially surpassing those of humans in the workforce.

While the mass production of humanoid robots may be perceived as a strong corporate showcase of capabilities, questions linger regarding the feasibility of such ventures amidst the still-emerging technological foundations of generalized modelsInsights from an automotive industry insider express concerns that a dualism in which humanoid robots possess "strong bodies but simple minds" is not what industries desire to see regarding the desired evolution of embodied intelligence.

"Before resolving issues surrounding the generalization of the robot's 'brain,' the practical challenges that mass production of humanoid robots can address remain exceedingly limited," pointed out Yuan Shuai