The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting in December is set to be pivotal, with both economists and market watchers on high alert for any unexpected shifts in the economic landscape. Recently, the Labor Department released its nonfarm payroll data for November, revealing a slight uptick that surpassed forecasts. This data is critical, as it sheds light on the resilience of the American economy amidst ongoing global uncertainties.
In light of the current economic environment characterized by low interest rates, declining inflation, and rising corporate profits, analysts believe that these factors could bolster U.S. stock markets heading toward the year's end. However, a key event looms on the horizon—the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November on Wednesday. This report holds the potential to serve as a ‘black swan’ event, capable of disrupting market expectations regarding possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Thomas Hainlin, a senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group, expressed during a recent phone interview that the lack of surprises in the labor market and inflation data has provided a supportive backdrop for risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. Indeed, just last Friday, U.S. markets responded positively, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices setting historical highs. During the same week, Bitcoin notably surged past the $100,000 mark, further indicating investor confidence.
Unless there is an unforeseen surge in the CPI, the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month appears optimistic. The recent employment data highlighted a cooling in the economy; despite an increase in hiring during November, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, and the duration needed for job searches extended. Analysts suggest that this nonfarm payroll data could justify an ideation around the Federal Reserve making another rate cut in December, provided this Wednesday’s inflation report does not reveal an unexpected acceleration.
Market anticipations are set, with expectations that the upcoming CPI release will demonstrate no significant rise in U.S. inflation. Forecasts from Bloomberg Economics predict that core inflation for November may remain steady compared to October, with a month-over-month increase of 0.2% and a year-over-year rise of 2.6%. Interest rate futures traders, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool, now assign an 85% probability to a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, an increase from 71% just a day prior and considerably up from 66% a month ago.
Amar Reganti, a fixed-income strategist at Hartford Funds, emphasized that all indicators suggest a rate cut in December, although inflation remains a key variable, hence there are still risks surrounding the CPI data. Similarly, Gennadiy Goldberg, the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at TD Securities, elaborated that if the monthly core CPI increases by 0.5% or more, it could prompt a reassessment of market expectations concerning the Federal Reserve's December meeting, potentially nudging investors and the Fed to reconsider the likelihood of a rate cut. If the core CPI unexpectedly comes in higher, this could sharply lower market expectations for a December decrease to 50% or below.
Turning to the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields displayed continued upward momentum following the nonfarm payroll report's release. Gang Hu, managing partner at Winshore Capital Partners, commented on the bond market dynamics, suggesting that unless the CPI significantly exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve's plan to cut rates this month remains intact, as they perceive the current policy as restrictive. This has led Hu to believe that Treasury yields have likely peaked.
Concerns over inflation resurfaced amidst tax cuts and tariff policies, causing bond yields to initially climb. Nevertheless, the prevailing speculation that the Federal Reserve might opt for another rate cut in December to foster a soft landing for the economy has led to a retreat in yields. Presently, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen from a high of 4.5% on November 15 to around 4.15%.
Nonetheless, the forward-looking policy directions are fraught with uncertainty, suggesting that the current tranquility in the bond market may not last long. The tax-cutting measures could inject additional stimulus into an already robust economy, further driving deficits and increasing U.S. Treasury supply, putting pressure on the bond market. Furthermore, tariff policies remain ambiguous, possibly elevating import costs and hampering global trade, which may create further ripples throughout the economy.
In light of these uncertainties, traders and Federal Reserve policymakers might adopt a wait-and-see approach, curtailing yield movements in the Treasury market. As shown through swap pricing, there seems to be an inclination among policymakers to pause on rate cuts during the January meeting. Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, articulated that the American economy’s inherent resilience suggests that the Fed may be approaching a pause in the rate-cutting cycle, potentially reassessing during early next year in response to policy conditions and forthcoming data releases.
As the economic narrative unfolds during this critical juncture, it becomes evident that the interplay between inflation, employment metrics, and Federal Reserve policies will be decisive in shaping the trajectory of financial markets in the coming months. Investors, analysts, and policymakers alike will keenly watch for signals that can illuminate the path ahead in what remains an unpredictable economic landscape.